C9TAYA：UFC Vegas 78 Swanson vs Dawodu Fight Picks & Odds: “Killer” Doesn’t Survive
UFC Vegas 78 is just a few days away, bringing another exciting card to MMA fans across the globe. After taking a look at the massive main event yesterday, it’s time to turn our attention to the co-main event between Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu.
This upcoming bout means a lot to these featherweights. Neither man is currently ranked at the moment, but a decisive victory could change that. Considering how Swanson and Dawodu have never challenged for the gold before, you can bet that they’re going to give their all in Las Vegas this weekend.
Betting News has all of your Swason vs. Dawodu betting needs covered, ranging from the latest odds ahead of C9TAYA to the best picks to make.
Swanson vs. Dawodu Tale of the Tape
Cub Swanson — Hakeem Dawodu
- Record: 28-13 — 13-3-1
- Height: 5’8” — 5’8”
- Reach: 70” — 73”
- Weight: 145 lbs — 145 lbs
- Age: 39 — 32
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 13 — 7
Swanson vs. Dawodu Odds (as of Thursday, August 10 at 9:10 a.m. via Bovada)
- Cub Swanson +185
- Hakeem Dawodu -225
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes -105
- No -125
- Over 2.5 Rounds (-130)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Swanson vs. Dawodu Fight Preview & Stats
The odds for this fight indicate that Swanson’s best days might be behind him. Dawodu is Bovada’s clear-cut favorite at -225 odds, carrying an implied win probability of 69.2%.
Swanson’s career began heading downward when a submission loss to Brian Ortega began a four-fight losing streak. He began to turn things around with back-to-back victories over Kron Gracie and Daniel Pineda, however, that momentum was wiped out with a first-round TKO loss to Giga Chikadze at UFC Vegas 25.
Although Swanson managed to return to the win column with a knockout victory over Darren Elkins, it didn’t take long until he was brought back to earth. He most recently fought as a bantamweight back in October, leading to a knockout loss to Jonathan Martinez.
It’ll be interesting to see which version of Dawodu shows up this week. After losing his UFC debut to Danny Henry, the 32-year-old Canadian showed hints of his potential by racking up wins in each of his next five fights.
Much to his dismay, Dawodu’s run came to an end against Movsar Evloev (via points) at UFC 263. He went on to pick up a unanimous decision win over Michael Trizano in his next bout, but couldn’t capitalize on that moment as he fell to Julian Erosa by UD just seven months later.
When it comes to striking numbers, Dawodu does have the edge when it comes to significant strikes landed (5.33 vs. 4.68) and absorbed (3.15 vs. 3.73) per minute.
Having said that, Swanson owns the superior grappling numbers. He averages 1.09 takedowns (with 52% accuracy) and 0.4 submissions per 15 minutes, whereas Dawodu doesn’t have any grappling stats aside from his 65% takedown defense rate.
C9TAYA: Swanson vs. Dawodu Betting Trends and Markets
Sportsbooks like Bovada offer more than just the moneyline when it comes to Swanson vs. Dawodu betting opportunities.
For example, the sportsbook favors that the fight won’t go the distance at -125 odds. This could be due to Swanson and Dawodu having 24 finishes between the two of them.
Furthermore, each of Swanson’s last four fights failed to make it beyond the second round.
Dawodu’s top victory method at the Apex is winning by KO/TKO or DQ (+170). While seven of his 13 victories came by knockout, he’s gone five consecutive fights without finishing an opponent. At the same time, Swanson has been knocked out twice in his last three fights.
Speaking of him, Swanson’s most likely to win by points (+350), per Bovada. Although he’s 11-3 when his fights go the distance, the 38-year-old veteran only has one decision victory in his last nine fights.
Even with Bovada favoring a finish this weekend, the over is still being favored on the 2.5-round total at -130 odds.
C9TAYA: Swanson vs. Dawodu Picks & Prediction
I’m going with a Dawodu victory this weekend. He’s the younger and hungrier fighter who, unlike Swanson, hasn’t been finished in five years. Swanson’s pair of KO/TKO losses is too hard to ignore, especially when it’s tougher to bounce back at this stage of his career.